基于VAR模型的凉山州金融支持高新技术产业发展
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西昌学院经济管理学院,四川 西昌 615013

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凉山州2024年科技计划项目(24YYYJ0221)。


Financial Support for the Development of High-tech Industries in Liangshan Prefecture Based on VAR Model
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School of Economics and Management, Xichang University, Xichang 615013, Sichuan, China

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    摘要:

    为探讨金融支持对凉山彝族自治州(凉山州)高新技术产业发展的影响,通过构建向量自回归(vector autoregression,VAR)模型,分析了凉山州2010—2024年间的高新技术产业产值、企业数量及存贷款余额的时序数据。实证结果表明:这些变量之间存在长期协整关系,其中存款余额对产业增长具有显著驱动作用,而贷款余额的预测能力有限;格兰杰因果检验证实了从金融存款到产业产值的单向因果关系,揭示了信贷资源配置的结构性失衡问题;早期企业融资缺口、高融资成本以及资本市场发育不足是主要制约因素。为此,本文提出了疏通信贷资源与产业需求之间的传导堵点、提高存款资源向产业投资转化的效率、拓展多元化的直接融资渠道、提升科技金融服务的专业化与精准化水平等政策建议,为促进高新技术产业发展提供了可操作的解决方案。

    Abstract:

    This paper explores the impact of financial support on the development of high-tech industries in Liangshan Prefecture. By constructing a vector autoregression (VAR) model, the time-series data of high-tech industry output value, the number of enterprises, and deposit and loan balances from 2010 to 2024 are empirically analyzed. The results show that there exists a long-term cointegration relationship among these variables: the deposit balance exerts a significant driving effect on industrial growth, while the loan balance has limited predictive power for industrial development. The Granger causality test verifies a unidirectional causal relationship from financial deposits to industrial output value, which reveals the structural imbalance in the allocation of credit resources in the prefecture. The main restrictive factors are identified as the financing gap of early-stage enterprises, high financing costs, and the underdevelopment of the capital market. Accordingly, this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations, including dredging the transmission blockages between credit resources and industrial demand, improving the efficiency of converting deposit resources into industrial investment, expanding diversified direct financing channels, and enhancing the specialization and precision of sci-tech financial services. These suggestions provide actionable solutions for promoting the development of high-tech industries in Liangshan prefecture.

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蔡昌艳.基于VAR模型的凉山州金融支持高新技术产业发展[J].西昌学院学报(自然科学版),2026,40(1):28-37.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-13
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-29
  • 录用日期:2025-10-30
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-16