昆明市土地利用碳排放的脱钩分析及其影响因素研究
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西昌学院资源与环境学院,四川 西昌615000

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四川省2022年大学生创新创业训练项目(S202210628048)。


Decoupling Analysis of Land Use Carbon Emission and Its Influencing Factors in Kunming City
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College of Resources and Environment, Xichang University, Xichang 615000, Sichuan, China

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    摘要:

    从土地利用方面分析云南昆明市碳排放与经济增长的关系,并探讨其影响因素,为昆明市制定碳减排任务,优化土地资源布局等提供依据。在昆明市2000—2020年土地利用遥感数据的基础上,使用碳排放系数法对昆明市碳排放的特征与强度进行分析,并使用Tapio脱钩模型与LMDI分解模型分析土地利用碳排放与经济增长的关系及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年,昆明市土地利用碳排放在空间上北部低而南部高,在时间上呈倒U型的趋势,即先上升后下降,于2010年达到最大,净碳排放量达1 232.07万t。(2)昆明市近20年脱钩指数呈下降趋势,经历了从扩张性连结到弱脱钩再到强脱钩3个阶段,脱钩状况表现较好;经济发展水平、建设用地规模和能源碳排放强度对土地利用碳排放起促进作用,在促进因素中经济发展水平的推动作用最明显;对土地利用碳排放起抑制作用的因素有能源消费强度和土地利用效率。 昆明市发展态势较好,碳减排工作显著,但能源结构还有待进一步的改善。

    Abstract:

    This paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth in Kunming City of Yunnan from the perspective of land use and explores its influencing factors, so as to provide a reference for formulating carbon emission reduction tasks and optimizing land resource layout in Kunming City. Based on remote sensing data of land use in Kunming from 2000 to 2020, the characteristics and intensity of carbon emissions in Kunming were analyzed by carbon emission coefficient method and other methods, and the relationship between carbon emissions of land use and economic growth and its influencing factors were analyzed by Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition model. The results show that: (1) In 2000-2020, the land use carbon emission figure in Kunming City was lower in the north and higher in the south and showed an inverted U-shaped trend (rising first and falling next) in time and reached a peak in 2010 of 12 320 700 tons. (2) The decoupling index of Kunming City has shown a downward trend in the past 20 years, going through three stages from expansionary link to weak decoupling and then to strong decoupling. The decoupling proved to be satisfactory. (3) Economic development level, construction land scale and energy carbon emission intensity played an important role in promoting land use carbon emission in which economic development level imposed the biggest effect. Energy consumption intensity and land use efficiency were the factors that inhibited carbon emission in land use. Kunming city witnesses a positive developing momentum. Its carbon emission reduction performance is noticeable, but the energy structure needs to be further improved.

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杨忆,王文楷.昆明市土地利用碳排放的脱钩分析及其影响因素研究[J].西昌学院学报(自然科学版),2024,38(2):87-96.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-04
  • 最后修改日期:2023-10-23
  • 录用日期:2023-12-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-09-14