Clarifying the evolution mechanism of sports security events in colleges and universities is the premise and basis for preventing and controlling sports security events. Based on the catastrophe theory， the catastrophe progression model of college sports safety events is constructed by using the methods of catastrophe progression and questionnaire survey， and the nonlinear evolution mechanism of college sports safety events is expounded. By combining catastrophe theory with fuzzy mathematics theory， a catastrophe progression model for the evaluation of college sports safety control level is established. The results show that college sports safety events have mutative characteristics such as accidentalness， multimode and hysteresis. The evolution process of events includes three stages： stable quantitative change， unstable qualitative change， and stable recovery. Only by establishing an avoidance mechanism between the stable quantitative change stage and the unstable qualitative change stage can the system avoid evolving towards an unsafe state. The method of mutation progression is used to evaluate the level of college sports safety management. As a result， the accuracy of evaluation is higher， which can help college administrators to define the current level of college sports safety management， and effectively prevent the occurrence of college sports security events.