Using GM (1,1) model and Bayesian formula to analyze the medal distributions of track and field events medals for the 27th and 31st Olympic Games and then forecasting the future trend, we aim to provide some theoretical reference for the future development of track and field in China. Our study shows that the medal concentration is still obvious, and the monopoly of continental dominant events is still prominent. The Americas and Europe hold their strong competitive edges in speed and speed-strength events respectively, and in all-round events, these two parties will continue to compete against each other, but Europe will be better than the Americas. Africa will remain dominant in endurance events, and needs to improve in other events. Asia and Oceania are relatively weaker in track and field events, but in recent years they have made great progress. The overall situation of world track and field competition will not change much in the near future.