7个试点省市碳价的影响因素与结构性断点分析
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安徽省高校自然科学重点项目:基于我国环境地域性污染差别特征的分散市场碳排放定价机制研究(KJ2018A0817); 安徽省高校人文社科重点项目:安徽省内淮河流域水污染税税率动态优化及市级层面协调机制研究(SK2019A1136); 安徽省哲学社会科学规划重点项目:安徽省产业生态化改造和及一体化协调政策研究(AHSKZ2018D06)。


Analysis on the Influencing Factors and Structural Breakpoints of Carbon Price in Seven Pilot Provinces and Cities
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    摘要:

    选取2014年5月14日—2018年4月25日7个试点省市(北京、上海、广东、天津、深圳、湖北、重庆)的碳交易周数据,利用 个体固定效应模型比较各地区影响因素的差异,并用面板PVAR模型分析各影响因素对碳价的贡献度。结果表明:石油价格 和空气质量指数对碳价的影响最显著且方向为正,煤炭价格对碳价的影响较小且方向为负,上证指数对碳价的影响最小;7个 试点省市个体固定效应有较大差别,表明各地环境污染存在差异;短期内各影响因素对碳价的冲击均不大,说明国内良好的碳 价机制尚未形成;长期内煤炭价格对碳价的解释力最强。并用Bai-Perron结构突变方法检验得到广东和湖北在交易期间各存 在1个突变时点,天津存在2个突变时点。建议增加碳产品种类,充分形成市场化的公平碳定价机制;调整企业能源使用结构, 降低碳价突发风险。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of seven pilot provinces and cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Hubei, Chongqing) from May 14, 2014 to April 25, 2018, Individual Fixed Effect Model was used to compare the differences of influencing factors in different regions, and Panel PVAR Model was used to analyze the factors' contribution to carbon price. The results show that oil price and air quality indexes have the most significant and positive effects on carbon price, coal price has less and negative effects, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has the least impact. Seven pilot provinces and municipalities show great differences in individual fixed effects, demonstrating that there exist differences in environmental pollution in different regions. Short-term impact of various factors on carbon price is not dramatic, indicating that a good carbon price mechanism has not yet developed in China. In the long run, coal prices have the strongest explanatory power for carbon prices. Bai-Perron structural mutation method was used to prove the existence of one mutation time point in Guangdong and Hubei respectively during the trading period, and two mutation time points in Tianjin. It is suggested that the types of carbon products be increased and a market-oriented fair carbon pricing mechanism be fully developed, so that the structure of enterprises' energy consumption can be improved and the unexpected risk of carbon price can be reduced.

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李菲菲 ,钱魏冬 ,许正松.7个试点省市碳价的影响因素与结构性断点分析[J].西昌学院学报(自然科学版),2020,34(1):27-32.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-05-21